How is the politics in Lebanon shaping with Gibran Basil in view?

The current president of Lebanon Michel Aoun will turn 86 next year and it is during the same time when the next elections in the country are scheduled. Given his age, it is highly unlikely that the leader will be able to continue his political tenure so the party in power, the Free Patriotic Movement, is considering to push the next in line, and his son-in-law--Gibran Basil--for this. 

But his road to the presidency will not be easy in Lebanon. Till now, it is well established that Hezbollah, a militant group, has a heavy influence in Lebanon. Be it political activities or financial matters, the militia group has always been the one taking the final call. In fact, it is the organization due which the International forum is reluctant to contribute to the development process of the country. 

FPP and its leader Basil are very well aware that they cannot move forward for the next year's election without the support of Hezbollah and are expecting the influential group will come forward to help them. But, contrary to their expectations, Hezbollah is not in favor of selecting the immediate political switch of the present president. 

The members from both the parties involved are revisiting the Mar Mikhail agreement which was signed between Hasan Nasrallah and Michel Aoun in 2006. The five-member team will essentially be deciding on how to move forward with each other's support to form the government. 

The Mikhail agreement was a barter between the two sides ensured securing of Maronite backed for the arms of Hezbollah in exchange for making Aoun the president of Lebanon. But it was only after ten years that Aoun chaired the country as the president in 2016. 

Last year in December, there was apparently a phone call between Nasrallah and Aoun’s son-in-law which effectively resulted in a five-member committee. It is obvious that Basil wants Hezbollah’s support to get the power. However, the organization is reluctant in backing Basil for the position. 

The agreement that was signed in 2006 did not have anything related to Basil but the party leader has found himself a space in those documents, which are also the reason for his appointment as one of the cabinet ministers in Aoun’s term. Hezbollah has done no good to the country and nor did the FPP party change the political arena of Lebanon. The country is struggling with the same issues as it was suffering 10 years ago. Then why Hezbollah is refusing to support him if the two sides are following the same path? 

The reason is that the militia group feels that it would not be justified to make Basil the president of the country ahead of Suleiman Frangieh, who is the head of the Marada Movement and a ranking member of the March 8 coalition. 

He was promised the presidency in 2016 but due to Aoun’s age, he was asked to back down. It was then promised to him that he will be made the president in 2022. Again overpassing him for Gubran’s sake will be injustice, feels Hezbollah. 

Another reason for Hezbollah not backing Basil is their lack of trust. They feel that Basil is not an eligible contender to get the support of the group as he is not a reliable ally. They still remember that he had double-crossed the group in 2018 when he reached out to Saad Al Hariri. Basil also had once compared the presence of Syrians with the French occupation of the country in the early 20th century. 

They are well aware that Basil is using the influence of the group in the region to further his political career and ambition and has absolutely no plans to return back their favors when the clock strikes. 

One thing that has created a soft spot in Hezbollah for Basil is the fact that both of them have been sanctioned by the US government. Last yeast, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Basil after which he went and pleaded to Hezbollah to help him swim through the troubled political battle. All Basil could think of since then was being on the good side of Nasrallah as he positioned himself as an obedient ally. 

With Basil in the scene, the politics in Lebanon is going to degrade further. International forums and the parties within the country are well aware that Basil does not have a strong spine and is only empty words when it comes to making promises. This is something even Hezbollah knows. It is highly unlikely that the militia group will support Basil until the emotional side of the story is played on a loop in the ears of Nasrallah.