Saudi-Iran Pact Could Transform The Middle East From 'Hitler' To 'Sharing One Fate'

 Only five years ago, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ridiculed Iran's supreme leader, saying he made Hitler look good. In a development that left the world doing literal double takes last week, the Saudis reestablished diplomatic relations with Tehran and spoke gaudily of sharing one fate.

It was a coup for China, which facilitated the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of proxy conflicts in the Middle East. Furthermore, it was a relief for Iran, which has been plagued by harsh sanctions and domestic unrest.

The pact could help quell regional tensions that have sparked wars, fueled media spats, and sent missiles and drones flying across the Arabian Peninsula if it succeeds.

As Prince Mohammed overhauls the conservative Islamic kingdom's economy and society, he hopes to turn it into a global hub for business and culture by resolving conflicts that have drained its budget, stained its reputation, and deterred potential investors.

After the announcement, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Twitter, "We share one fate. So we need to work together to build models of prosperity and stability."

Middle Eastern politics and trade have long been shaped by the rivalry between these two Islamic nations separated by less than 150 miles of Persian Gulf waters.

The Saudi royal family and population predominantly follow Sunni Islam, while Iran's citizenry is mostly Shi'ite. This platform of dissimilarity has resulted in proxy wars across the Middle East — Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon being just some of the countries where Iran has backed militias to the presumed detriment of regional stability. Analysts were astonished by the abrupt announcement of a reconciliation; until recently, there had been little indication that talks with Tehran were making headway. Needless to say, China played a substantial role in the process – having hosted the negotiations that eventually culminated in this momentous step forward.

In Washington, several policy experts framed Chinese involvement as a threat to the waning American influence in the Middle East. Indeed, some Gulf Arab officials say that they can no longer rely on the United States to guarantee their security, they must solve their problems, and that China is willing to offer weapons, technology, and investment without any strings attached.

Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has pursued a muscular foreign policy, bombing Yemen and incarcerating activists and critics aggressively.

As a result of a deal facilitated by China, the kingdom and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties, which could lead to a major realignment between the two countries.

Amid U.S.-Saudi relations taking a hit over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, Riyadh has moved closer to an isolated Moscow and Beijing, with whom it signed a strategic partnership agreement.

In exchange for normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is seeking security guarantees and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program from the United States.

Many analysts, however, cautioned that Prince Mohammed is simply adhering to the pragmatic foreign policy approach he has pursued over the past few years. Although the United States remains the kingdom's dominant security partner, they say that given Washington's deeply strained relations with Iran, it couldn't have mediated a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran anyway.

It's not like Saudi Arabia isn't aware that even a Chinese guarantee has its limitations, said Yasmine Farouk, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. There have been many hard lessons learned for the Saudis over the past few years, including the need to diversify our relationships.

Throughout the past two years, Saudi officials have held several rounds of talks with their Iranian counterparts, including in Iraq and Oman.

Prince Mohammed said in an interview in 2019 that a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would send oil prices skyrocketing and cause the "total collapse of the global economy," meaning a "political and peaceful solution is much better than a military conflict."

A missile attack on a major Saudi oil installation had briefly disrupted half of the kingdom's crude production just weeks before those remarks, an attack that U.S. officials said was directed directly by Iran.

Saudi officials realized that Iran had the audacity and capability to conduct such an attack — and that the attack had little immediate repercussion for the Islamic Republic — at a critical moment. According to analysts, it was part of the reason they entered into talks with Iran in 2021.

Since then, American efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was abrogated by President Donald J. Trump have faltered and stalled. It is believed that Tehran now has enough enriched uranium to build several nuclear weapons if it chooses to, and Saudi officials fear that the kingdom could be their first target.

Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has diverted the attention of global powers elsewhere, leaving Gulf governments more dependent on themselves than ever before.

Mohammed Alsulami, who heads an Iran-focused think tank based in Riyadh, highlights a fundamental element of Saudi foreign policy: In their attempts to resolve any differences with Iran, they are strongly advocating for diplomatic means. According to Alsulami, this is partly due to a potential deterioration in Iran's relationship with other countries—particularly as a result of their support for Russia in the Ukraine war. Consequently, Saudi Arabia is keen to send a "positive message" and try engaging again with Iran to prevent any further conflict.

The move toward reconciliation is partly driven by Prince Mohammed’s challenges at home as he overhauls nearly every aspect of Saudi Arabia's life. "Vision 2030," his all-encompassing transformation plan, calls for diversifying the oil-dependent economy through foreign investment and creating new businesses such as luxury tourism and entertainment.

As part of its bid to host the World Expo in 2030, the government has said tens of millions of expatriates should move to the kingdom. With an active war with Iran-backed rebels in Yemen on the kingdom's southern border and missiles flying overhead, all of those targets would be especially difficult to reach.

In addition, the crown prince's desire to transform Saudi Arabia into a global power in its own right, rather than the American "client state" that Congress has dismissed as a "client state" is also driving the shift toward resolving regional conflicts. His ambition is to strengthen the kingdom's relations in Asia, Europe, and Latin America and see the kingdom as a major player in the Middle East, no longer dependent on the United States as it once was.

The Saudi foreign minister has also been traveling to Ukraine and Russia over the past month, disbursing humanitarian aid and offering to mediate the conflict.

Despite this, Saudi Arabia will not be discarding the United States as its main security guarantor anytime soon; the United States supplies most of the kingdom's weapons and defensive systems. As Saudi officials expand ties in China, South Korea, India, and beyond, it does mean a relative weakening of American dominance in the region.

The first crucial test of the new agreement concerning Iran will be in Yemen. Since 2015, a Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthi rebels nurtured by Iran. Saudi authorities are desperate to reach an accord that would put an end to this conflict, which has been costing them billions of dollars and receiving heightened criticism from Washington and Europe. Moreover, it has resulted in the death of a multitude of Yemenis as well as plunged the poorest nation in the Arab world into a debilitating humanitarian disaster.

At a news conference after the announcement, UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said, "We hope that this agreement will have a positive impact on this situation and others."